Club Queretaro vs Puebla preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Club Queretaro and Puebla, the 1X2 probabilities show Club Queretaro at 51% to win, while Puebla sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.74 for Club Queretaro and 1.28 for Puebla.
However, recent form could affect the outcome. Club Queretaro has recorded four losses followed by two wins, while Puebla has three losses, one draw, and two more losses in their last six matches. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 61%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 58%, indicating potential for a high-scoring match.
Club Queretaro vs Puebla: model vs market
| Source | Club Queretaro | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Club Queretaro vs Puebla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Club Queretaro, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 1.77 | 1.79 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.76 | -0.02 |
| Puebla | 4.10 | 4.03 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club Queretaro and Puebla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Club Queretaro / Puebla)
- 0.82 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Club Queretaro / Puebla)
- 1.21 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Queretaro vs Puebla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Queretaro goals. Columns: Puebla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Queretaro vs Puebla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Queretaro vs Puebla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Queretaro | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Puebla | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Queretaro or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Puebla) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Queretaro win by 2+ | 26% | 3.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club Queretaro and Puebla recent form
Club Queretaro
2W 0D 4L
Puebla
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Queretaro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Queretaro at home only, Puebla away only.
Club Queretaro vs Puebla head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Club Queretaro 2 · draws 0 · Puebla 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Puebla | 1-2 | Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-04 | Club Queretaro | 3-1 | Puebla | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
- Necaxa v Club Tijuana — match page 2026-11-07
- Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna 2026-11-07
- Atlas vs CF Pachuca — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul — match page 2026-11-08
- Toluca vs Monterrey 2026-11-08
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America — match page 2026-11-08
- Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Club Queretaro, previous: FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro prediction
- Puebla, previous: Puebla v U.N.A.M. - Pumas analysis