Updated

Liga MX · Apertura - 16

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez

· Estadio Libertad Financiera, San Luis de Potosi· Referee Victor Alfonso Caceres Hernandez

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Atletico San Luis to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico San LuisDrawFC Juarez

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico San LuisDrawFC Juarez
Model55%25%20%
Market57%23%20%
Published56%24%20%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico San Luis, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.70Now 1.65 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico San Luis1.701.65-0.05
Draw3.854.00+0.15
FC Juarez4.404.75+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico San Luis and FC Juarez expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Atletico San Luis
1.04FC Juarez
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (Atletico San Luis / FC Juarez)
0.90 / 0.80
Defence rating (Atletico San Luis / FC Juarez)
1.02 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 4.7% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1 9.2% 11.7% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.9% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 5.9% 6.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 4.2% 4.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Atletico San Luis goals. Columns: FC Juarez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico San Luis56%1.77
Draw24%4.21
FC Juarez20%5.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.24
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Atletico San Luis or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or FC Juarez)44%2.30
Handicap -1Atletico San Luis win by 2+33%3.07
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico San Luis and FC Juarez recent form

Atletico San Luis 3W 1D 2L
FC Juarez 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico San Luis at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-4
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 8
  • They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.

FC Juarez away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-6
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.57
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 2 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico San Luis at home only, FC Juarez away only.

Expected lineups

Atletico San Luis lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 25 G. Lajud
  2. 18 A. Cruz
  3. 31 E. Águila
  4. 3 Robson Bambu
  5. 17 A. Duarte
  6. 10 S. Salles-Lamonge
  7. 21 Ó. Macías
  8. 7 B. Galdames
  9. 22 Rafa Llorente
  10. 11 D. Rodríguez
  11. 99 F. Mora

Bench: A. Sánchez, R. Torres, R. Meraz, Juanpe, L. Nájera, J. Caicedo, S. Muñóz, L. Flores, S. Pérez Bouquet, B. Galindo

FC Juarez lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Jurado
  2. 14 E. López
  3. 26 D. Piña
  4. 2 G. Sepúlveda
  5. 33 F. Nevárez
  6. 13 Rodrigo Dourado
  7. 5 D. García
  8. 183 L. Silva
  9. 8 Guilherme Castilho
  10. 9 Madson
  11. 19 Ó. Estupiñán

Bench: J. Murillo, Monchu, R. Fulgencio, J. Torres, J. Rodríguez, L. Martínez Dupuy, Ricardinho, Guillermo Ruiz, Ricardo Juárez Mendoza, J. Carmona

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico San Luis 3 · draws 1 · FC Juarez 6.

Atletico San LuisDrawsFC Juarez
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-26FC Juarez2-1Atletico San LuisLiga MX
2025-11-01Atletico San Luis1-2FC JuarezLiga MX
2025-03-08Atletico San Luis1-0FC JuarezLiga MX
2024-10-28FC Juarez2-4Atletico San LuisLiga MX
2024-04-08Atletico San Luis2-3FC JuarezLiga MX
2023-10-26FC Juarez3-2Atletico San LuisLiga MX
2023-04-14Atletico San Luis2-0FC JuarezLiga MX
2022-08-04FC Juarez1-1Atletico San LuisLiga MX
2022-01-21Atletico San Luis0-1FC JuarezLiga MX
2021-09-22FC Juarez1-0Atletico San LuisLiga MX

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