Vitesse vs De Graafschap preview
Vitesse faces De Graafschap with a 47% chance of winning compared to De Graafschap's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Vitesse has an expected goals figure of 1.47, while De Graafschap sits at 0.99.
Both teams to score has a probability of 50%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 45%. Recent form shows Vitesse with a mixed record of W-L-W-L-D-L, while De Graafschap has a slightly better run of W-L-D-L-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.
Vitesse vs De Graafschap: model vs market
| Source | Vitesse | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vitesse vs De Graafschap odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vitesse, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 2.00 | 1.91 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.79 | 3.84 | +0.05 |
| De Graafschap | 3.20 | 3.43 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitesse and De Graafschap expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Vitesse / De Graafschap)
- 0.81 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Vitesse / De Graafschap)
- 0.81 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitesse vs De Graafschap score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitesse goals. Columns: De Graafschap goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitesse vs De Graafschap goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitesse vs De Graafschap
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 48% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| De Graafschap | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitesse or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or De Graafschap) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win by 2+ | 24% | 4.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vitesse and De Graafschap recent form
Vitesse
2W 2D 2L
De Graafschap
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitesse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
De Graafschap away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitesse at home only, De Graafschap away only.
Vitesse vs De Graafschap head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Vitesse 1 · draws 0 · De Graafschap 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | De Graafschap | 1-4 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-12-04 | Vitesse | 1-2 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong PSV U21 — match page 2026-11-06
- Heracles vs Roda — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2026-11-06
- Jong AZ v Almere City FC — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC OSS vs Waalwijk 2026-11-06
- Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Emmen v MVV — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Vitesse, previous: Jong Ajax – Vitesse, 2026-11-02
- De Graafschap, previous: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap: odds and pick