Vitesse vs Jong AZ preview
In the fixture between Vitesse and Jong AZ, the 1X2 probabilities show Vitesse at 43%, Jong AZ at 33%, with a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model predicts a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%.
Vitesse's expected goals stand at 1.87, while Jong AZ's is at 1.61. Recent form indicates Vitesse has drawn twice and won twice in their last six matches, while Jong AZ has two wins and four losses. The head-to-head record shows each team has won once in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Vitesse vs Jong AZ: model vs market
| Source | Vitesse | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vitesse and Jong AZ expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Vitesse / Jong AZ)
- 0.81 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Vitesse / Jong AZ)
- 0.81 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitesse vs Jong AZ score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitesse goals. Columns: Jong AZ goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitesse vs Jong AZ goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitesse vs Jong AZ
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitesse | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Jong AZ | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitesse or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong AZ) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win by 2+ | 24% | 4.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Vitesse and Jong AZ recent form
Vitesse
2W 2D 2L
Jong AZ
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitesse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong AZ away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 2.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.57
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitesse at home only, Jong AZ away only.
Vitesse vs Jong AZ head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Vitesse 1 · draws 0 · Jong AZ 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Vitesse | 2-0 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-12 | Jong AZ | 4-0 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- De Graafschap v MVV — match page 2026-11-20
- Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 2026-11-20
- FC Volendam v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-11-20
- Almere City FC vs NAC Breda — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo 2026-11-20
- FC OSS v Roda — match page 2026-11-20
- Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Jong Utrecht vs Emmen 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Vitesse, previous: MVV vs Vitesse prediction
- Jong AZ, previous: Jong AZ v Almere City FC analysis