Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Heracles and Jong PSV U21, the 1X2 probabilities show Heracles at 76%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 (12%). Heracles has an expected goals figure of 2.61, while Jong PSV U21 sits at 0.76. This suggests a strong performance from Heracles.
However, the recent form of both teams could influence the outcome. Heracles has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Jong PSV U21 has only managed 1 win in their last 6, with 3 draws. There is also a 65% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance for both teams to score, indicating that while Heracles is favored, Jong PSV U21 could still pose a challenge.
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21: model vs market
| Source | Heracles | Draw | Jong PSV U21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Heracles and Jong PSV U21 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Heracles / Jong PSV U21)
- 1.51 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Heracles / Jong PSV U21)
- 0.67 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heracles goals. Columns: Jong PSV U21 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heracles vs Jong PSV U21
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 76% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.29 | |
| Jong PSV U21 | 8% | 12.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heracles or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong PSV U21) | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win by 2+ | 55% | 1.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Heracles and Jong PSV U21 recent form
Heracles
4W 1D 1L
Jong PSV U21
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heracles at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 11 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong PSV U21 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heracles at home only, Jong PSV U21 away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- De Graafschap v MVV — match page 2026-11-20
- Vitesse vs Jong AZ — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- FC Volendam v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-11-20
- Almere City FC vs NAC Breda — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo 2026-11-20
- FC OSS v Roda — match page 2026-11-20
- Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Jong Utrecht vs Emmen 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Heracles, previous: Dordrecht vs Heracles prediction
- Jong PSV U21, previous: VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21: odds and pick