FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax preview
In the fixture between FC Volendam and Jong Ajax, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Volendam at 58% and Jong Ajax at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has an 8% chance according to our model.
The prediction also suggests a high likelihood of goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 77%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the outcome. Recent form shows FC Volendam with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Jong Ajax has only 2 wins in the same period, which could impact performance.
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax: model vs market
| Source | FC Volendam | Draw | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 19% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Volendam and Jong Ajax expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.38
- Attack rating (FC Volendam / Jong Ajax)
- 1.37 / 0.95
- Defence rating (FC Volendam / Jong Ajax)
- 1.19 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Volendam goals. Columns: Jong Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Volendam | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.27 | |
| Jong Ajax | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Volendam or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong Ajax) | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Volendam win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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FC Volendam and Jong Ajax recent form
FC Volendam
3W 1D 2L
Jong Ajax
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Volendam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-1
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 3.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Jong Ajax away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Volendam at home only, Jong Ajax away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- De Graafschap v MVV — match page 2026-11-20
- Vitesse vs Jong AZ — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 2026-11-20
- Almere City FC vs NAC Breda — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo 2026-11-20
- FC OSS v Roda — match page 2026-11-20
- Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Jong Utrecht vs Emmen 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- FC Volendam, previous: Roda – FC Volendam, 2026-11-14
- Jong Ajax, previous: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax: odds and pick