FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax preview
In the match between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Eindhoven at 47%, Jong Ajax at 30%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 72%.
FC Eindhoven's recent form is L-W-L-L-L-D, while Jong Ajax has D-D-W-L-D-L. The expected goals are 2.25 for FC Eindhoven and 1.62 for Jong Ajax. The head-to-head record favors FC Eindhoven with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 wins for Jong Ajax. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax: model vs market
| Source | FC Eindhoven | Draw | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Published | 45% | 23% | 31% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.62.
- The market prices FC Eindhoven below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Eindhoven, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Eindhoven | 2.01 | 2.15 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 3.90 | -0.13 |
| Jong Ajax | 3.11 | 2.81 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.87
- Attack rating (FC Eindhoven / Jong Ajax)
- 1.05 / 0.85
- Defence rating (FC Eindhoven / Jong Ajax)
- 1.27 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Eindhoven goals. Columns: Jong Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Eindhoven | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Jong Ajax | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Eindhoven or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong Ajax) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Eindhoven win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax recent form
FC Eindhoven
1W 1D 4L
Jong Ajax
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Eindhoven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong Ajax away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Eindhoven at home only, Jong Ajax away only.
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Eindhoven 4 · draws 4 · Jong Ajax 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | FC Eindhoven | 2-1 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-21 | Jong Ajax | 1-3 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-03-03 | Jong Ajax | 0-2 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-08-24 | FC Eindhoven | 0-3 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-12-23 | FC Eindhoven | 2-2 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-09-25 | Jong Ajax | 1-1 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-03-10 | FC Eindhoven | 5-1 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-01-06 | Jong Ajax | 1-1 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-03-18 | Jong Ajax | 2-2 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-10-22 | FC Eindhoven | 1-3 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong PSV U21 — match page 2026-11-06
- Heracles vs Roda — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2026-11-06
- Jong AZ v Almere City FC — match page 2026-11-06
- FC OSS vs Waalwijk 2026-11-06
- Helmond Sport v FC Volendam — match page 2026-11-06
- Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Vitesse vs De Graafschap 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Eindhoven, previous: Helmond Sport – FC Eindhoven, 2026-10-30
- Jong Ajax, previous: Jong Ajax – Vitesse, 2026-11-02