Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht preview
Den Bosch faces Jong Utrecht with a 70% probability of winning, while Jong Utrecht sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, which aligns with an 84% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance for both teams to score. Den Bosch's expected goals stand at 3.14, compared to Jong Utrecht's 1.50.
Den Bosch's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Jong Utrecht has lost 4 of their last 6, winning only once. However, the head-to-head record shows Den Bosch has not won against Jong Utrecht in their last 2 encounters, with 1 draw and 1 loss. This could influence the outcome, despite Den Bosch's strong current form.
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht: model vs market
| Source | Den Bosch | Draw | Jong Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 16% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Published | 61% | 20% | 20% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.15 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Den Bosch below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Den Bosch, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch | 1.57 | 1.59 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.00 |
| Jong Utrecht | 4.60 | 4.50 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.73
- Attack rating (Den Bosch / Jong Utrecht)
- 1.28 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Den Bosch / Jong Utrecht)
- 0.97 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Den Bosch goals. Columns: Jong Utrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.10 | |
| Jong Utrecht | 20% | 5.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.31 |
| No | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Den Bosch or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong Utrecht) | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win by 2+ | 50% | 2.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht recent form
Den Bosch
4W 2D 0L
Jong Utrecht
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Den Bosch at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Jong Utrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Den Bosch at home only, Jong Utrecht away only.
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Den Bosch 5 · draws 3 · Jong Utrecht 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | Den Bosch | 1-1 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-24 | Jong Utrecht | 3-2 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-01-27 | Den Bosch | 2-0 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-09-16 | Jong Utrecht | 0-3 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-04-15 | Jong Utrecht | 0-2 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-11-04 | Den Bosch | 1-1 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-05-08 | Jong Utrecht | 0-0 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-01-06 | Den Bosch | 1-4 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-04-18 | Jong Utrecht | 0-1 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-10-29 | Den Bosch | 2-1 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong PSV U21 — match page 2026-11-06
- Heracles vs Roda — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2026-11-06
- Jong AZ v Almere City FC — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC OSS vs Waalwijk 2026-11-06
- Helmond Sport v FC Volendam — match page 2026-11-06
- Vitesse vs De Graafschap 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Den Bosch, previous: Emmen – Den Bosch, 2026-11-01
- Jong Utrecht, previous: Jong Utrecht v Dordrecht analysis