FC OSS vs Waalwijk preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between FC OSS and Waalwijk, the probabilities show a 30% chance for FC OSS to win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 45% chance for Waalwijk to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. FC OSS has an expected goals figure of 1.70, while Waalwijk sits at 1.40.
Both teams to score has a 63% chance, and there is a 60% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals in the match. Recent form indicates FC OSS has won 3 of their last 6 games, while Waalwijk has struggled, with only 1 win in their last 6 matches. A surprise could occur if Waalwijk's form improves significantly or if FC OSS fails to convert their chances.
FC OSS vs Waalwijk: model vs market
| Source | FC OSS | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Published | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC OSS vs Waalwijk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Waalwijk, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC OSS | 3.31 | 3.58 | +0.27 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.77 | -0.00 |
| Waalwijk | 2.00 | 1.90 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC OSS and Waalwijk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (FC OSS / Waalwijk)
- 1.00 / 0.96
- Defence rating (FC OSS / Waalwijk)
- 0.98 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC OSS vs Waalwijk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC OSS goals. Columns: Waalwijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC OSS vs Waalwijk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC OSS vs Waalwijk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC OSS | 30% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Waalwijk | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC OSS or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Waalwijk) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win by 2+ | 14% | 6.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC OSS and Waalwijk recent form
FC OSS
3W 1D 2L
Waalwijk
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC OSS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Waalwijk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC OSS at home only, Waalwijk away only.
FC OSS vs Waalwijk head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: FC OSS 1 · draws 2 · Waalwijk 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Waalwijk | 2-0 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-21 | FC OSS | 0-0 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-07-02 | Waalwijk | 5-3 | FC OSS | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2019-01-13 | FC OSS | 1-2 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 2018-10-12 | Waalwijk | 0-0 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2018-04-06 | FC OSS | 3-1 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 2017-11-24 | Waalwijk | 2-1 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2017-03-10 | Waalwijk | 3-0 | FC OSS | Eerste Divisie |
| 2016-10-14 | FC OSS | 2-5 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Heracles vs Roda — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2026-11-06
- Jong AZ v Almere City FC — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Helmond Sport v FC Volendam — match page 2026-11-06
- Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Vitesse vs De Graafschap 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC OSS, previous: Heracles vs FC OSS: odds and pick
- Waalwijk, previous: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC prediction