Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 14

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

· AFAS Trainingscomplex, Alkmaar

Alin prediction Almere City FC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Jong AZDrawAlmere City FC
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.78.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Almere City FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Jong AZ3.00 Draw4.40 Almere City FC2.17

Price as of

Expected return at 2.17: -3.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC preview

In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Jong AZ and Almere City FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Jong AZ at 33%, Almere City FC at 44%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 74%.

Jong AZ's expected goals stand at 1.78, while Almere City FC's is higher at 2.16. Recent form shows Jong AZ with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Almere City FC has won 4 of their last 6. The head-to-head record is evenly matched, with both teams having 5 wins each in the last 10 encounters. A lower scoring match or a draw could challenge the predictions.

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJong AZDrawAlmere City FC
Model32%22%46%
Market33%23%44%
Published33%23%44%
Edge0%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Almere City FC, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 2.13Now 2.12 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Jong AZ2.772.80+0.03
Draw4.004.00+0.00
Almere City FC2.132.12-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Jong AZ and Almere City FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Jong AZ
2.16Almere City FC
Total expected goals
3.94
Attack rating (Jong AZ / Almere City FC)
1.38 / 1.14
Defence rating (Jong AZ / Almere City FC)
1.27 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 3.5% 4.6% 3.3% 2.9% 1 2.7% 8.2% 8.1% 5.8% 5.2% 2 3.1% 6.6% 7.2% 5.2% 4.6% 3 1.8% 3.9% 4.3% 3.1% 2.7% 4+ 1.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8%

Rows: Jong AZ goals. Columns: Almere City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Jong AZ33%3.06
Draw23%4.37
Almere City FC44%2.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.04
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.88
Double chance1X (Jong AZ or draw)56%1.80
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Almere City FC)67%1.49
Handicap -1Almere City FC win by 2+28%3.61
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Jong AZ and Almere City FC recent form

Jong AZ 2W 2D 2L
Almere City FC 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Jong AZ at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.9 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.

Almere City FC away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-2
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
2.43
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Jong AZ at home only, Almere City FC away only.

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Jong AZ 5 · draws 0 · Almere City FC 5.

Jong AZDrawsAlmere City FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-26Jong AZ3-4Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2025-10-24Almere City FC1-3Jong AZEerste Divisie
2023-04-07Almere City FC2-1Jong AZEerste Divisie
2022-08-22Jong AZ3-2Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2022-07-02Jong AZ1-3Almere City FCFriendlies Clubs
2022-05-06Almere City FC0-3Jong AZEerste Divisie
2021-08-09Jong AZ2-1Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2021-01-15Jong AZ2-5Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2020-11-06Almere City FC2-0Jong AZEerste Divisie
2020-03-02Jong AZ3-1Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Almere City FC to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Almere City FC
Our pick: Almere City FC to win 18+ Bet Now