Roda vs Jong AZ preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between Roda and Jong AZ, Roda has a 50% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are predicted at 68%. Roda's expected goals stand at 1.96, while Jong AZ's is 1.54, indicating a competitive matchup.
However, recent form shows Roda with a record of W-W-D-L-W-D and Jong AZ at W-D-L-W-D-L. Additionally, in their last two meetings, Jong AZ has won both, which could challenge Roda's chances. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Roda vs Jong AZ: model vs market
| Source | Roda | Draw | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Roda vs Jong AZ odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roda, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roda | 1.79 | 1.68 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.18 | +0.18 |
| Jong AZ | 3.68 | 4.10 | +0.42 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roda and Jong AZ expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Roda / Jong AZ)
- 0.85 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Roda / Jong AZ)
- 0.72 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roda vs Jong AZ score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roda goals. Columns: Jong AZ goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roda vs Jong AZ goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roda vs Jong AZ
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roda | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Jong AZ | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roda or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong AZ) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roda win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Roda and Jong AZ recent form
Roda
3W 2D 1L
Jong AZ
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Roda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong AZ away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 3.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Roda at home only, Jong AZ away only.
Roda vs Jong AZ head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Roda 0 · draws 0 · Jong AZ 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Jong AZ | 2-0 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-12-05 | Roda | 2-3 | Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven — match page 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Roda, previous: Roda vs De Graafschap prediction
- Jong AZ, previous: Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport: odds and pick