FC Volendam vs De Graafschap preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between FC Volendam and De Graafschap, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Volendam at 53% to win, while De Graafschap has a 26% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. FC Volendam has an expected goals figure of 2.71, compared to De Graafschap's 1.20, indicating a stronger offensive performance.
While FC Volendam is favored, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the match outcome. Factors that could lead to a different result include De Graafschap's ability to capitalize on their chances, as both teams to score has a 66% probability. Additionally, the recent form shows both teams have had mixed results, which could impact their performance on the day.
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap: model vs market
| Source | FC Volendam | Draw | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Market | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Published | 52% | 22% | 27% |
| Edge | +6% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Volendam below our published probability: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Volendam, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam | 1.96 | 2.02 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.03 | 4.07 | +0.04 |
| De Graafschap | 3.09 | 3.00 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Volendam and De Graafschap expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (FC Volendam / De Graafschap)
- 1.34 / 0.82
- Defence rating (FC Volendam / De Graafschap)
- 0.98 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Volendam goals. Columns: De Graafschap goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Volendam | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | |
| De Graafschap | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Volendam or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or De Graafschap) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Volendam win by 2+ | 49% | 2.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Volendam and De Graafschap recent form
FC Volendam
3W 1D 2L
De Graafschap
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Volendam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
De Graafschap away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Volendam at home only, De Graafschap away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven — match page 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- FC Volendam, previous: FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam, 2026-10-27
- De Graafschap, previous: Roda vs De Graafschap prediction