Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda: model vs market
| Source | Jong PSV U21 | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Jong PSV U21 / NAC Breda)
- 0.83 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Jong PSV U21 / NAC Breda)
- 0.96 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong PSV U21 goals. Columns: NAC Breda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong PSV U21 | 33% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| NAC Breda | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong PSV U21 or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or NAC Breda) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win by 2+ | 21% | 4.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jong PSV U21 and NAC Breda recent form
Jong PSV U21
1W 2D 3L
NAC Breda
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong PSV U21 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
NAC Breda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong PSV U21 at home only, NAC Breda away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Heracles vs FC OSS 2026-11-02
- Jong Ajax vs Vitesse — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Jong PSV U21, previous: FC Eindhoven v Jong PSV U21 analysis
- NAC Breda, previous: JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda prediction