Emmen vs Den Bosch preview
In the fixture between Emmen and Den Bosch, the 1X2 probabilities show Emmen at 58%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. Emmen's expected goals stand at 2.11, while Den Bosch has 1.17. A strong possibility exists for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 62%.
However, recent form indicates that Emmen has had a mixed performance with W-W-W-D-W-L, while Den Bosch has shown some resilience with D-W-W-D-L-W. The confidence grade is C, suggesting that while Emmen is favored, unexpected results could occur, particularly if Den Bosch continues their upward trend.
Emmen vs Den Bosch: model vs market
| Source | Emmen | Draw | Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Emmen and Den Bosch expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Emmen / Den Bosch)
- 1.14 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Emmen / Den Bosch)
- 0.89 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Emmen vs Den Bosch score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Emmen goals. Columns: Den Bosch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Emmen vs Den Bosch goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Emmen vs Den Bosch
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Den Bosch | 20% | 5.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Emmen or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Den Bosch) | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Emmen and Den Bosch recent form
Emmen
4W 1D 1L
Den Bosch
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Emmen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Den Bosch away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Emmen at home only, Den Bosch away only.
Emmen vs Den Bosch head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Emmen 1 · draws 1 · Den Bosch 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Den Bosch | 1-1 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-29 | Emmen | 3-1 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven — match page 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Emmen, previous: Groningen – Emmen, 2026-10-29
- Den Bosch, previous: Rijnsburgse Boys vs Den Bosch prediction