Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 13

Heracles vs FC OSS

· Asito Stadium, Almelo

Alin prediction Heracles to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HeraclesDrawFC OSS
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.29.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Heracles is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Heracles1.22 Draw6.35 FC OSS9.80

Price as of

Expected return at 1.22: -10.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 2 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Heracles vs FC OSS: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHeraclesDrawFC OSS
Model64%19%17%
Market76%15%9%
Published73%16%11%
Edge-3%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.29.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.22, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Heracles vs FC OSS odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Heracles, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.21Now 1.21 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Heracles1.211.21+0.00
Draw6.356.35+0.00
FC OSS9.809.80+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Heracles and FC OSS expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.57Heracles
1.29FC OSS
Total expected goals
3.86
Attack rating (Heracles / FC OSS)
1.45 / 1.13
Defence rating (Heracles / FC OSS)
0.77 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Heracles vs FC OSS score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 1 4.7% 7.7% 4.5% 1.9% 0.8% 2 6.9% 9.0% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3 5.9% 7.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 7.1% 9.1% 5.9% 2.5% 1.1%

Rows: Heracles goals. Columns: FC OSS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Heracles vs FC OSS goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Heracles vs FC OSS

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Heracles73%1.37
Draw16%6.39
FC OSS11%8.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.86
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.48
No32%3.09
Double chance1X (Heracles or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or FC OSS)27%3.71
Handicap -1Heracles win by 2+44%2.27
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Heracles and FC OSS recent form

Heracles 3W 2D 1L
FC OSS 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Heracles at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.20
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC OSS away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-6
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Heracles at home only, FC OSS away only.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Heracles to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Heracles
Our pick: Heracles to win 18+ Bet Now