Waalwijk vs Almere City FC preview
In the fixture between Waalwijk and Almere City FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Waalwijk at 41%, Almere City FC at 34%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. The expected goals are 1.35 for Waalwijk and 1.44 for Almere City FC, indicating a closely contested match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. Waalwijk's recent form shows 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Almere City FC has 3 wins in their last 5. Despite Waalwijk's slight edge in head-to-head results, their recent form could lead to unexpected outcomes.
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC: model vs market
| Source | Waalwijk | Draw | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Waalwijk, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk | 2.13 | 2.15 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.00 |
| Almere City FC | 2.88 | 2.91 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Waalwijk and Almere City FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Waalwijk / Almere City FC)
- 0.94 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Waalwijk / Almere City FC)
- 0.88 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Waalwijk goals. Columns: Almere City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waalwijk | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Almere City FC | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Waalwijk or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Almere City FC) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win by 2+ | 16% | 6.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Waalwijk and Almere City FC recent form
Waalwijk
1W 3D 2L
Almere City FC
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Waalwijk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Almere City FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Waalwijk at home only, Almere City FC away only.
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Waalwijk 1 · draws 1 · Almere City FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Almere City FC | 2-2 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-30 | Waalwijk | 2-0 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven — match page 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Waalwijk, previous: Barendrecht vs Waalwijk: odds and pick
- Almere City FC, previous: Telstar vs Almere City FC prediction