Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture, Helmond Sport has a 46% chance of winning against FC Eindhoven, who have a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams have struggled recently, with Helmond Sport losing five of their last six matches, while FC Eindhoven has lost four of their last six.
The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 69%, and both teams to score also stands at 69%. However, the recent form of both teams could lead to an unexpected outcome, especially given the confidence grade of C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven: model vs market
| Source | Helmond Sport | Draw | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Published | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.48.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Helmond Sport, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 2.08 | 2.10 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.69 | +0.04 |
| FC Eindhoven | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Helmond Sport / FC Eindhoven)
- 0.99 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Helmond Sport / FC Eindhoven)
- 1.27 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Helmond Sport goals. Columns: FC Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| FC Eindhoven | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Helmond Sport or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Eindhoven) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Helmond Sport win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Helmond Sport and FC Eindhoven recent form
Helmond Sport
0W 1D 5L
FC Eindhoven
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Helmond Sport at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
FC Eindhoven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Helmond Sport at home only, FC Eindhoven away only.
Helmond Sport vs FC Eindhoven head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Helmond Sport 1 · draws 0 · FC Eindhoven 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | FC Eindhoven | 1-0 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-26 | Helmond Sport | 1-0 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Heracles vs FC OSS 2026-11-02
- Jong PSV U21 v NAC Breda — match page 2026-11-02
- Jong Ajax vs Vitesse — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Helmond Sport, previous: Helmond Sport v Willem II analysis
- FC Eindhoven, previous: FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam, 2026-10-27