Jong Ajax vs Vitesse: model vs market
| Source | Jong Ajax | Draw | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Jong Ajax and Vitesse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Jong Ajax / Vitesse)
- 0.87 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Jong Ajax / Vitesse)
- 1.27 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong Ajax goals. Columns: Vitesse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Ajax | 34% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Vitesse | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong Ajax or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Vitesse) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jong Ajax and Vitesse recent form
Jong Ajax
1W 2D 3L
Vitesse
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong Ajax at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitesse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong Ajax at home only, Vitesse away only.
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jong Ajax 1 · draws 0 · Vitesse 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Vitesse | 6-1 | Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-12-01 | Jong Ajax | 2-0 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Heracles vs FC OSS 2026-11-02
- Jong PSV U21 v NAC Breda — match page 2026-11-02
- Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Jong Ajax, previous: FC OSS vs Jong Ajax: odds and pick
- Vitesse, previous: VVV Venlo v Vitesse analysis