MVV vs Vitesse preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between MVV and Vitesse, the 1X2 probabilities show Vitesse at 51%, while MVV sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs at a 10% probability. MVV's recent form is concerning, with 5 losses and only 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Vitesse has a mixed record of 2 wins, 2 losses, and 2 draws.
The model suggests a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. However, if MVV can improve their form or if Vitesse struggles to convert their chances, these predictions could change. The expected goals show MVV at 1.05 and Vitesse at 1.67, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
MVV vs Vitesse: model vs market
| Source | MVV | Draw | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
MVV vs Vitesse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vitesse, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 3.38 | 3.04 | -0.33 |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.59 | -0.02 |
| Vitesse | 2.01 | 2.12 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
MVV and Vitesse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (MVV / Vitesse)
- 0.79 / 0.81
- Defence rating (MVV / Vitesse)
- 1.24 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MVV vs Vitesse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MVV goals. Columns: Vitesse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MVV vs Vitesse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MVV vs Vitesse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MVV | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Vitesse | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MVV or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Vitesse) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitesse win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MVV and Vitesse recent form
MVV
1W 1D 4L
Vitesse
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MVV at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vitesse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: MVV at home only, Vitesse away only.
MVV vs Vitesse head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: MVV 1 · draws 2 · Vitesse 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Vitesse | 0-0 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-21 | MVV | 3-2 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-03-01 | Vitesse | 1-0 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-12-06 | MVV | 2-2 | Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- NAC Breda vs Emmen — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- De Graafschap vs FC OSS 2026-11-14
- VVV Venlo v FC Eindhoven — match page 2026-11-14
- Dordrecht vs Heracles — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Roda vs FC Volendam 2026-11-14
- Waalwijk v Den Bosch — match page 2026-11-14
- Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport — team news & stats 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- MVV, previous: Emmen vs MVV prediction
- MVV, next: De Graafschap – MVV, 2026-11-20
- Vitesse, previous: Vitesse vs De Graafschap: odds and pick
- Vitesse, next: Vitesse v Jong AZ analysis