Roda vs FC Volendam: model vs market
| Source | Roda | Draw | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 45% | 24% | 30% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Roda vs FC Volendam odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roda, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roda | 1.91 | 1.95 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.76 | -0.18 |
| FC Volendam | 3.31 | 3.40 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roda and FC Volendam expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.66
- Attack rating (Roda / FC Volendam)
- 0.87 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Roda / FC Volendam)
- 0.89 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roda vs FC Volendam score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roda goals. Columns: FC Volendam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roda vs FC Volendam goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roda vs FC Volendam
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roda | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| FC Volendam | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roda or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Volendam) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roda win by 2+ | 21% | 4.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Roda and FC Volendam recent form
Roda
4W 1D 1L
FC Volendam
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Roda at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Volendam away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Roda at home only, FC Volendam away only.
Expected lineups
Roda lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 J. Treichel
- 15 L. Beerten
- 33 D. Van den Buijs
- 3 M. Tol
- 5 K. Jansen
- 4 J. Nisbet
- 24 J. Déom
- 17 Guilherme Martinho Peixoto
- 26 J. Sleegers
- 6 M. Paulissen
- 9 A. van den Hurk
Bench: Luuk Verheij, C. Seedorf, F. Schenten, X. van den Berg, N. Crabu, M. Stojcevic, Bram Marsman, K. Van Mieghem, J. van Damme
FC Volendam lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 16 R. Steur
- 2 P. Ugwu
- 6 A. Plat
- 3 M. Amevor
- 18 N. Bukala
- 8 D. Huisman
- 34 M. Belfqih
- 21 Y. el Maftahi
- 10 R. Niemeijer
- 7 N. Doodeman
- 9 H. Veerman
Bench: E. Schouten, Dean Bisschops, S. Deme, D. Vlak, Luca Blondeau, Jesper Tielemans, M. van der Horst, J. Haakmat, F. Ihler
Roda vs FC Volendam head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Roda 2 · draws 5 · FC Volendam 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-02 | FC Volendam | 3-2 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-11-29 | Roda | 1-1 | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-02-07 | Roda | 1-1 | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-09-13 | FC Volendam | 2-2 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-03-06 | FC Volendam | 3-4 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2020-10-04 | Roda | 1-1 | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie |
| 2020-01-24 | Roda | 2-3 | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie |
| 2019-08-16 | FC Volendam | 4-0 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2019-05-03 | FC Volendam | 1-1 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2018-12-14 | Roda | 2-1 | FC Volendam | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
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- Waalwijk v Den Bosch — match page 2026-11-14
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- MVV vs Vitesse 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Roda, previous: Heracles vs Roda prediction
- Roda, next: FC OSS vs Roda: odds and pick
- FC Volendam, previous: Helmond Sport – FC Volendam, 2026-11-06
- FC Volendam, next: FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax prediction