Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 15

De Graafschap vs FC OSS

· De Vijverberg, Dutinghem

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was De Graafschap to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
De GraafschapDrawFC OSS

De Graafschap vs FC OSS: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDe GraafschapDrawFC OSS
Model35%27%38%
Market58%21%21%
Published52%23%25%
Edge-6%+1%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

De Graafschap vs FC OSS odds movement

Median bookmaker price on De Graafschap, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 1.60Now 1.61 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
De Graafschap1.601.61+0.01
Draw4.404.37-0.04
FC OSS4.504.50+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

De Graafschap and FC OSS expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40De Graafschap
1.47FC OSS
Total expected goals
2.87
Attack rating (De Graafschap / FC OSS)
0.82 / 0.96
Defence rating (De Graafschap / FC OSS)
1.03 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

De Graafschap vs FC OSS score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 7.2% 6.1% 3.0% 1.5% 1 6.8% 12.8% 8.6% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.5% 8.2% 6.0% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: De Graafschap goals. Columns: FC OSS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

De Graafschap vs FC OSS goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for De Graafschap vs FC OSS

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2De Graafschap52%1.92
Draw23%4.38
FC OSS25%3.99
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.21
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (De Graafschap or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or FC OSS)48%2.09
Handicap -1De Graafschap win by 2+17%6.05
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

De Graafschap and FC OSS recent form

De Graafschap 2W 2D 2L
FC OSS 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

De Graafschap at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-3
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.17
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC OSS away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-7
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.43
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: De Graafschap at home only, FC OSS away only.

Expected lineups

De Graafschap lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 T. Wieggers
  2. 5 L. Schoppema
  3. 15 T. Kok
  4. 3 R. Besselink
  5. 2 J. Wieckhoff
  6. 6 C. Leemans
  7. 10 F. de Jong
  8. 23 M. Diemers
  9. 8 D. Warmerdam
  10. 16 N. Martens
  11. 7 Bjorn van Zijl

Bench: J. Hardeman, J. Kania, Gijs Bolk, N. Kaninda, K. Symons, N. Ahmeti-Grainca, J. Triep, Sam Bouwman, R. Jonkers, Kyano Kwint

FC OSS lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. Havekotte
  2. 26 Julian Kuijpers
  3. 23 D. Vianello
  4. 14 M. Mariani
  5. 12 A. Henry
  6. 11 J. Mathieu
  7. 8 M. Esajas
  8. 10 R. van der Venne
  9. 17 M. Hinoke
  10. 9 Andy Visser
  11. 27 M. de Lannoy

Bench: L. Miguel, Q. Jansen, Jafar Howard Bynoe, M. Horemans, D. Remie, F. Nsingi, Thomas Cox, Mert Erkan, L. Mol, L. Zonneveld, S. Doucouré

De Graafschap vs FC OSS head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: De Graafschap 7 · draws 2 · FC OSS 1.

De GraafschapDrawsFC OSS
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-20FC OSS2-3De GraafschapEerste Divisie
2025-10-18De Graafschap1-1FC OSSEerste Divisie
2025-03-16FC OSS0-2De GraafschapEerste Divisie
2024-11-22De Graafschap4-0FC OSSEerste Divisie
2024-10-29De Graafschap4-1FC OSSKNVB Beker
2024-03-01De Graafschap2-1FC OSSEerste Divisie
2023-12-01FC OSS0-1De GraafschapEerste Divisie
2023-04-14FC OSS3-3De GraafschapEerste Divisie
2022-10-28De Graafschap2-0FC OSSEerste Divisie
2022-04-15De Graafschap1-2FC OSSEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match