Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 15

NAC Breda vs Emmen

· Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda· Referee Stan Teuben

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was NAC Breda to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NAC BredaDrawEmmen

NAC Breda vs Emmen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNAC BredaDrawEmmen
Model56%24%20%
Market61%21%18%
Published60%22%18%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.07.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

NAC Breda vs Emmen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on NAC Breda, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-09.

Opened 1.52Now 1.52 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
NAC Breda1.521.52+0.00
Draw4.454.43-0.02
Emmen5.155.21+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

NAC Breda and Emmen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93NAC Breda
1.07Emmen
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (NAC Breda / Emmen)
1.06 / 0.96
Defence rating (NAC Breda / Emmen)
0.74 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

NAC Breda vs Emmen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 4.3% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1 8.6% 11.3% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 6.0% 6.4% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 4.5% 4.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: NAC Breda goals. Columns: Emmen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

NAC Breda vs Emmen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for NAC Breda vs Emmen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2NAC Breda60%1.67
Draw22%4.60
Emmen18%5.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.74
Under 2.542%2.36
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.33
Double chance1X (NAC Breda or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Emmen)40%2.50
Handicap -1NAC Breda win by 2+34%2.96
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

NAC Breda and Emmen recent form

NAC Breda 4W 2D 0L
Emmen 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

NAC Breda at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.

Emmen away

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.17
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: NAC Breda at home only, Emmen away only.

Expected lineups

NAC Breda lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. Verrips
  2. 12 J. Van den Bergh
  3. 22 R. Hillen
  4. 4 L. Greiml
  5. 2 B. Lucassen
  6. 6 M. Balard
  7. 10 M. Nassoh
  8. 8 F. Oldrup Jensen
  9. 14 K. Sowah
  10. 9 M. Soumano
  11. 78 J. Van Hecke

Bench: J. Candelaria, G. Misehouy, M. Bouchouari, P. Gladon, M. Seuntjens, R. Kortsmit, P. Reulen, K. Lamprou, E. Ikpia, I. Nazih

Emmen lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 S. Karssies
  2. 17 B. Van Hove
  3. 2 J. Mukeh
  4. 25 R. Kongolo
  5. 24 L. Everink
  6. 7 T. Rhein
  7. 22 M. Breij
  8. 21 A. Hojabrpour
  9. 40 S. Veldhuis
  10. 9 J. Cooper
  11. 10 Mustafa Abdullatif

Bench: C. Østergaard, L. Denk, F. Quispel, Stan van Manen, V. Carus, D. Lambers, J. Huijzer, K. Roos, Kevin Norder

NAC Breda vs Emmen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: NAC Breda 3 · draws 2 · Emmen 5.

NAC BredaDrawsEmmen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-05-25Emmen0-3NAC BredaEredivisie
2024-05-21NAC Breda1-1EmmenEredivisie
2024-01-13Emmen2-3NAC BredaEerste Divisie
2023-09-22NAC Breda1-3EmmenEerste Divisie
2023-06-03Emmen2-0NAC BredaEredivisie
2023-05-31NAC Breda1-2EmmenEredivisie
2022-01-22Emmen2-0NAC BredaEerste Divisie
2021-09-17NAC Breda1-2EmmenEerste Divisie
2021-05-20Emmen1-1NAC BredaEredivisie
2019-10-29NAC Breda3-2EmmenKNVB Beker

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match