Almere City FC vs NAC Breda preview
In the fixture between Almere City FC and NAC Breda, the 1X2 probabilities show Almere City FC at 47%, while NAC Breda sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Almere City FC's expected goals are 1.61, compared to NAC Breda's 1.13, suggesting a stronger attacking performance from Almere.
Both teams to score has a 55% probability, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, the recent form could impact the outcome, as Almere City FC has fluctuated with a record of W-W-W-L-L-W, while NAC Breda is more consistent with D-W-W-D-W-W. This inconsistency in Almere's performance could lead to unexpected results.
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda: model vs market
| Source | Almere City FC | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.13.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Almere City FC and NAC Breda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Almere City FC / NAC Breda)
- 1.22 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Almere City FC / NAC Breda)
- 0.71 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almere City FC goals. Columns: NAC Breda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almere City FC | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| NAC Breda | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almere City FC or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or NAC Breda) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almere City FC win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almere City FC and NAC Breda recent form
Almere City FC
4W 0D 2L
NAC Breda
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almere City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
NAC Breda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Almere City FC at home only, NAC Breda away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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- Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 2026-11-20
- FC Volendam v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-11-20
- Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo 2026-11-20
- FC OSS v Roda — match page 2026-11-20
- Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Jong Utrecht vs Emmen 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Almere City FC, previous: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport: odds and pick
- Almere City FC, next: Almere City FC vs Vvsb: odds and pick
- NAC Breda, previous: NAC Breda – Emmen, 2026-11-14
- NAC Breda, next: NAC Breda – SC Genemuiden, 2026-12-01