Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo preview
In the fixture between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo, the model gives Den Bosch a 45% chance to win, while VVV Venlo has a 33% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. The expected goals are 2.13 for Den Bosch and 1.80 for VVV Venlo, suggesting a high-scoring match.
Both teams to score stands at 74%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 75%. Recent form shows Den Bosch with three wins in their last five matches, while VVV Venlo has two wins. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. This could mean that unexpected events might affect the outcomes.
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo: model vs market
| Source | Den Bosch | Draw | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 45% | 22% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.80.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Den Bosch and VVV Venlo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.93
- Attack rating (Den Bosch / VVV Venlo)
- 1.24 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Den Bosch / VVV Venlo)
- 0.92 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Den Bosch goals. Columns: VVV Venlo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Den Bosch | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.51 | |
| VVV Venlo | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Den Bosch or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or VVV Venlo) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Den Bosch win by 2+ | 27% | 3.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Den Bosch and VVV Venlo recent form
Den Bosch
4W 2D 0L
VVV Venlo
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Den Bosch at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-1
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
VVV Venlo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Den Bosch at home only, VVV Venlo away only.
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Den Bosch 1 · draws 0 · VVV Venlo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Den Bosch | 0-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-30 | VVV Venlo | 0-1 | Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
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Before and after this match
- Den Bosch, previous: Waalwijk v Den Bosch analysis
- Den Bosch, next: Ajax vs Den Bosch: odds and pick
- VVV Venlo, previous: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven: odds and pick