Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 15

Waalwijk vs Den Bosch

· Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Waalwijk to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WaalwijkDrawDen Bosch

Waalwijk vs Den Bosch: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWaalwijkDrawDen Bosch
Model33%25%42%
Market47%24%29%
Published43%24%32%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Waalwijk vs Den Bosch odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Waalwijk, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.87Now 2.00 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Waalwijk1.872.00+0.13
Draw3.953.85-0.10
Den Bosch3.403.17-0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Waalwijk and Den Bosch expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Waalwijk
1.73Den Bosch
Total expected goals
3.25
Attack rating (Waalwijk / Den Bosch)
0.93 / 1.24
Defence rating (Waalwijk / Den Bosch)
0.93 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Waalwijk vs Den Bosch score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 5.7% 5.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1 4.9% 11.2% 8.8% 5.1% 3.2% 2 4.5% 7.8% 6.7% 3.9% 2.5% 3 2.3% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 4+ 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.7%

Rows: Waalwijk goals. Columns: Den Bosch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Waalwijk vs Den Bosch goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Waalwijk vs Den Bosch

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Waalwijk43%2.32
Draw24%4.10
Den Bosch32%3.08
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.72
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.89
Double chance1X (Waalwijk or draw)68%1.48
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Den Bosch)57%1.76
Handicap -1Waalwijk win by 2+16%6.17
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Waalwijk and Den Bosch recent form

Waalwijk 0W 4D 2L
Den Bosch 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Waalwijk at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-1
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
2.43
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Den Bosch away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Waalwijk at home only, Den Bosch away only.

Expected lineups

Waalwijk lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 16 M. Spenkelink
  2. 55 N. Held
  3. 30 J. de Wijs
  4. 3 S. van der Plas
  5. 33 F. Al Mazyani
  6. 18 R. van Hedel
  7. 6 L. Postma
  8. 17 R. Kuijpers
  9. 11 Yorem van der Veen
  10. 9 J. van de Haar
  11. 10 T. van Leeuwen

Bench: J. Nap, Xander Mulder, H. van Gemert, T. van de Loo, A. Dkidak, F. Stokkers, L. Vogels, B. Kemmeren, V. Misidjan

Den Bosch lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 P. van de Merbel
  2. 3 S. Maas
  3. 25 Silvan Broker
  4. 4 J. van Heertum
  5. 22 Jeffry Fortes
  6. 10 Devon Decorte
  7. 18 H. Eikelboom
  8. 35 B. van Schuppen
  9. 27 L. Hoffman
  10. 9 S. Karlsson Grach
  11. 8 K. Monzialo

Bench: G. Sille, J. De Vries, Wang Bohao, E. Semedo, R. Wolters, F. Murre, E. Bijlsma, S. van Daalen, K. de Rooij

Waalwijk vs Den Bosch head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Waalwijk 2 · draws 4 · Den Bosch 3.

WaalwijkDrawsDen Bosch
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Waalwijk2-3Den BoschEerste Divisie
2025-10-03Den Bosch2-2WaalwijkEerste Divisie
2024-07-06Waalwijk2-3Den BoschFriendlies Clubs
2019-02-01Waalwijk2-1Den BoschEerste Divisie
2018-08-24Den Bosch2-3WaalwijkEerste Divisie
2018-02-23Den Bosch0-0WaalwijkEerste Divisie
2017-10-08Waalwijk1-1Den BoschEerste Divisie
2017-03-17Den Bosch1-1WaalwijkEerste Divisie
2016-11-04Waalwijk0-2Den BoschEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match