Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 15

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven

· Seacon Stadion De Koel, Venlo

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was VVV Venlo to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VVV VenloDrawFC Eindhoven

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVVV VenloDrawFC Eindhoven
Model71%15%13%
Market59%21%20%
Published62%20%18%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.11 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices VVV Venlo below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven odds movement

Median bookmaker price on VVV Venlo, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.63Now 1.57 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
VVV Venlo1.631.57-0.06
Draw4.304.37+0.07
FC Eindhoven4.384.70+0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.11VVV Venlo
1.39FC Eindhoven
Total expected goals
4.50
Attack rating (VVV Venlo / FC Eindhoven)
1.31 / 0.96
Defence rating (VVV Venlo / FC Eindhoven)
0.97 / 1.34

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1 3.0% 5.3% 3.3% 1.5% 0.7% 2 5.4% 7.5% 5.2% 2.4% 1.1% 3 5.6% 7.7% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4+ 9.4% 13.1% 9.1% 4.2% 2.0%

Rows: VVV Venlo goals. Columns: FC Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 83%
Over 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2VVV Venlo62%1.61
Draw20%5.06
FC Eindhoven18%5.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583%1.21
Under 2.517%5.78
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.38
No28%3.61
Double chance1X (VVV Venlo or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or FC Eindhoven)38%2.64
Handicap -1VVV Venlo win by 2+53%1.89
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven recent form

VVV Venlo 3W 2D 1L
FC Eindhoven 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

VVV Venlo at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-1
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
2.71
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Eindhoven away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: VVV Venlo at home only, FC Eindhoven away only.

Expected lineups

VVV Venlo lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Y. Schoonderwaldt
  2. 5 Lars de Blok
  3. 33 G. Blancquart
  4. 4 É. Clancy
  5. 14 Raf Vullers
  6. 38 Tristan Schenkhuizen
  7. 6 A. Verstraeten
  8. 19 Thomas Janssen
  9. 8 Ismail Oulad M'Hand
  10. 7 E. Zuliani
  11. 9 M. Tsigkas

Bench: T. Doornbusch, Tijn Joosten, L. Görlich, Zidane Taylan, M. Odriss, M. Davis, A. Rais, Yousri El Anbri, D. Hendrix, M. van Grootel

FC Eindhoven lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 J. Borgmans
  2. 20 Raf van de Riet
  3. 5 R. Boon
  4. 44 O. Renfrum
  5. 17 L. Netten
  6. 8 X. Blomme
  7. 14 N. Munsters
  8. 6 G. Beaumont
  9. 77 V. Besuijen
  10. 19 Kevin Ferreira
  11. 28 R. Buifrahi

Bench: H. Deenen, M. de Jonge, A. Bryson, B. Rovers, Antonio Baždarić, A. Ozcan, H. Ali, N. Fancito, N. Janssen

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: VVV Venlo 6 · draws 3 · FC Eindhoven 1.

VVV VenloDrawsFC Eindhoven
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07VVV Venlo1-0FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
2025-10-24FC Eindhoven0-1VVV VenloEerste Divisie
2025-03-22VVV Venlo2-2FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
2024-12-13FC Eindhoven1-3VVV VenloEerste Divisie
2024-02-23VVV Venlo2-2FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
2023-11-10FC Eindhoven0-2VVV VenloEerste Divisie
2023-04-14VVV Venlo2-2FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
2022-12-16FC Eindhoven0-2VVV VenloEerste Divisie
2022-03-11FC Eindhoven4-0VVV VenloEerste Divisie
2021-11-19VVV Venlo2-0FC EindhovenEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match