VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 preview
In the fixture between VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21, the 1X2 probabilities show VVV Venlo at 60%, while Jong PSV U21 sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with VVV Venlo's expected goals of 2.49 compared to Jong PSV U21's 1.12.
VVV Venlo's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Jong PSV U21 has struggled, with only 1 win in their last 6. There is a 70% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score, but if Jong PSV U21 performs better than expected, it could affect the outcome.
VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21: model vs market
| Source | VVV Venlo | Draw | Jong PSV U21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 20% | 20% |
| Published | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VVV Venlo, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo | 1.75 | 1.57 | -0.18 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.55 | +0.25 |
| Jong PSV U21 | 3.83 | 4.60 | +0.77 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (VVV Venlo / Jong PSV U21)
- 1.40 / 0.75
- Defence rating (VVV Venlo / Jong PSV U21)
- 1.00 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VVV Venlo goals. Columns: Jong PSV U21 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VVV Venlo | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Jong PSV U21 | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VVV Venlo or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Jong PSV U21) | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win by 2+ | 46% | 2.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
VVV Venlo and Jong PSV U21 recent form
VVV Venlo
4W 1D 1L
Jong PSV U21
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VVV Venlo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jong PSV U21 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: VVV Venlo at home only, Jong PSV U21 away only.
VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: VVV Venlo 3 · draws 2 · Jong PSV U21 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Jong PSV U21 | 1-0 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-15 | VVV Venlo | 0-2 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-01-27 | Jong PSV U21 | 1-2 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-09-20 | VVV Venlo | 0-2 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-02-02 | VVV Venlo | 3-2 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-09-22 | Jong PSV U21 | 0-0 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-01-23 | Jong PSV U21 | 1-2 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-09-16 | VVV Venlo | 1-1 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-01-14 | VVV Venlo | 1-4 | Jong PSV U21 | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-10-01 | Jong PSV U21 | 2-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Heracles vs Roda — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2026-11-06
- Jong AZ v Almere City FC — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC OSS vs Waalwijk 2026-11-06
- Helmond Sport v FC Volendam — match page 2026-11-06
- Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Vitesse vs De Graafschap 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- VVV Venlo, previous: MVV v VVV Venlo analysis
- Jong PSV U21, previous: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda prediction