Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 14

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam

· Lavans Stadion, Helmond

Alin prediction FC Volendam to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 3

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Helmond SportDrawFC Volendam
  • WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Volendam is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Helmond Sport2.70 Draw3.95 FC Volendam2.50

Price as of

Expected return at 2.50: +1.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam preview

In the fixture between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Volendam at 41% to win, compared to Helmond Sport's 37%. The most likely scoreline is 2-3, with an expected goals total of 2.43 for Helmond Sport and 2.73 for FC Volendam.

Both teams have shown inconsistent recent form, with Helmond Sport recording 1 win in their last 6 matches, while FC Volendam has 2 wins in their last 6. The high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 89% and both teams to score at 86% suggest an attacking game, but if either team fails to convert chances, these predictions could be off.

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHelmond SportDrawFC Volendam
Model36%19%46%
Market36%25%39%
Published36%23%41%
Edge0%-2%+2%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Volendam, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 2.35Now 2.39 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Helmond Sport2.472.55+0.08
Draw3.903.74-0.16
FC Volendam2.352.39+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Helmond Sport and FC Volendam expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.43Helmond Sport
2.73FC Volendam
Total expected goals
5.17
Attack rating (Helmond Sport / FC Volendam)
1.15 / 1.31
Defence rating (Helmond Sport / FC Volendam)
1.40 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 0.9% 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 2.6% 1 1.0% 4.2% 5.2% 4.7% 6.3% 2 1.7% 4.6% 6.3% 5.7% 7.6% 3 1.4% 3.7% 5.1% 4.7% 6.2% 4+ 1.5% 4.1% 5.5% 5.1% 6.7%

Rows: Helmond Sport goals. Columns: FC Volendam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 97%
Over 2.5 89%
Over 3.5 76%
Both teams to score
86%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Helmond Sport36%2.76
Draw23%4.30
FC Volendam41%2.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.589%1.13
Under 2.511%8.99
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.17
No14%6.98
Double chance1X (Helmond Sport or draw)59%1.68
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or FC Volendam)64%1.57
Handicap -1FC Volendam win by 2+29%3.43
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Helmond Sport and FC Volendam recent form

Helmond Sport 1W 1D 4L
FC Volendam 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Helmond Sport at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-1
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

FC Volendam away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-5
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Helmond Sport at home only, FC Volendam away only.

Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Helmond Sport 0 · draws 3 · FC Volendam 7.

Helmond SportDrawsFC Volendam
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-02-28FC Volendam3-1Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2024-09-20Helmond Sport2-3FC VolendamEerste Divisie
2022-02-25FC Volendam4-1Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2021-12-03Helmond Sport1-1FC VolendamEerste Divisie
2021-04-09FC Volendam5-1Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2020-09-18Helmond Sport0-1FC VolendamEerste Divisie
2020-01-31FC Volendam2-1Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2019-08-09Helmond Sport1-1FC VolendamEerste Divisie
2019-02-15FC Volendam1-0Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2018-09-28Helmond Sport2-2FC VolendamEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot FC Volendam to win Predicted score 2 – 3 C Bet on FC Volendam
Our pick: FC Volendam to win 18+ Bet Now