Heracles vs Roda preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between Heracles and Roda, the 1X2 probabilities show Heracles at 62%, while Roda sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Heracles has an expected goals figure of 1.57, compared to Roda's 0.90, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Heracles has a mixed record with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while Roda has been more consistent with 4 wins and 1 draw. Additionally, the model suggests a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, which could challenge the predicted scoreline.
Heracles vs Roda: model vs market
| Source | Heracles | Draw | Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.90.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Heracles vs Roda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heracles, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 1.48 | 1.54 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.65 | 4.29 | -0.36 |
| Roda | 5.64 | 5.12 | -0.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heracles and Roda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Heracles / Roda)
- 1.34 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Heracles / Roda)
- 0.68 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heracles vs Roda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heracles goals. Columns: Roda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heracles vs Roda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heracles vs Roda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heracles | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Roda | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heracles or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Roda) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heracles win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Heracles and Roda recent form
Heracles
3W 2D 1L
Roda
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heracles at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Roda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Heracles at home only, Roda away only.
Heracles vs Roda head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Heracles 5 · draws 3 · Roda 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | Heracles | 1-0 | Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-12-11 | Roda | 1-3 | Heracles | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-10-18 | Roda | 2-2 | Heracles | KNVB Beker |
| 2018-03-02 | Roda | 0-3 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
| 2017-09-23 | Heracles | 2-1 | Roda | Eredivisie |
| 2017-02-11 | Heracles | 2-2 | Roda | Eredivisie |
| 2016-08-07 | Roda | 1-1 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
| 2016-02-28 | Heracles | 0-5 | Roda | Eredivisie |
| 2015-08-08 | Roda | 3-1 | Heracles | Eredivisie |
| 2014-03-15 | Heracles | 2-1 | Roda | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong PSV U21 — match page 2026-11-06
- Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2026-11-06
- Jong AZ v Almere City FC — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC OSS vs Waalwijk 2026-11-06
- Helmond Sport v FC Volendam — match page 2026-11-06
- Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Vitesse vs De Graafschap 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Heracles, previous: Heracles vs FC OSS: odds and pick
- Roda, previous: Roda v Jong AZ analysis