Dordrecht vs NAC Breda preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Dordrecht and NAC Breda, the 1X2 probabilities show NAC Breda at 61%, compared to Dordrecht's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance, indicating a strong performance expected from NAC Breda.
Dordrecht's recent form is L-L-L-W-L-D, while NAC Breda has a better record with W-W-D-W-W-D. The expected goals are 1.36 for Dordrecht and 2.59 for NAC Breda. Over 2.5 goals has a 75% probability, and both teams to score stands at 69%. This suggests that while NAC Breda is favored to win, a high-scoring game could alter the outcome.
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda: model vs market
| Source | Dordrecht | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 19% | 63% |
| Market | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Published | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NAC Breda, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 4.10 | 5.51 | +1.41 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.75 | +0.55 |
| NAC Breda | 1.71 | 1.44 | -0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dordrecht and NAC Breda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.95
- Attack rating (Dordrecht / NAC Breda)
- 0.92 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Dordrecht / NAC Breda)
- 1.45 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dordrecht goals. Columns: NAC Breda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dordrecht | 17% | 5.88 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.18 | |
| NAC Breda | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dordrecht or draw) | 36% | 2.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or NAC Breda) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win by 2+ | 43% | 2.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dordrecht and NAC Breda recent form
Dordrecht
1W 1D 4L
NAC Breda
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dordrecht at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
NAC Breda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dordrecht at home only, NAC Breda away only.
Dordrecht vs NAC Breda head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Dordrecht 4 · draws 1 · NAC Breda 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | NAC Breda | 1-4 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-08-11 | Dordrecht | 2-2 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-02-24 | NAC Breda | 3-2 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-10-22 | Dordrecht | 0-3 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-04-22 | NAC Breda | 1-2 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-11-05 | Dordrecht | 2-1 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-02-19 | Dordrecht | 2-3 | NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| 2020-12-06 | NAC Breda | 0-1 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2019-12-21 | NAC Breda | 3-0 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
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Before and after this match
- Dordrecht, previous: Jong Utrecht v Dordrecht analysis
- NAC Breda, previous: Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda prediction