Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht: model vs market
| Source | Jong Utrecht | Draw | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.70.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.27
- Attack rating (Jong Utrecht / Dordrecht)
- 1.03 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Jong Utrecht / Dordrecht)
- 1.38 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jong Utrecht goals. Columns: Dordrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jong Utrecht | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.08 | |
| Dordrecht | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jong Utrecht or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Dordrecht) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jong Utrecht win by 2+ | 37% | 2.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht recent form
Jong Utrecht
2W 0D 4L
Dordrecht
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jong Utrecht at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Dordrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jong Utrecht at home only, Dordrecht away only.
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jong Utrecht 2 · draws 0 · Dordrecht 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Jong Utrecht | 3-1 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-11-28 | Dordrecht | 1-2 | Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- MVV vs VVV Venlo — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Heracles vs FC OSS 2026-11-02
- Jong PSV U21 v NAC Breda — match page 2026-11-02
- Jong Ajax vs Vitesse — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Jong Utrecht, previous: FC Volendam v Jong Utrecht analysis
- Dordrecht, previous: SC Genemuiden – Dordrecht, 2026-10-28