MVV vs VVV Venlo preview
In the Eerste Divisie, MVV hosts VVV Venlo with a 26% chance of winning compared to VVV Venlo's 51%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-3, occurring 8% of the time. VVV Venlo's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while MVV has struggled with only 1 win in the same period.
The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams to score at 73%. MVV is expected to score 1.43 goals, while VVV Venlo is forecasted at 3.05. However, if MVV can improve their form, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
MVV vs VVV Venlo: model vs market
| Source | MVV | Draw | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 16% | 70% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Edge | -4% | -2% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.05 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices VVV Venlo below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
MVV vs VVV Venlo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VVV Venlo, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 3.12 | 3.12 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| VVV Venlo | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
MVV and VVV Venlo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.47
- Attack rating (MVV / VVV Venlo)
- 0.77 / 1.56
- Defence rating (MVV / VVV Venlo)
- 1.31 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
MVV vs VVV Venlo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: MVV goals. Columns: VVV Venlo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
MVV vs VVV Venlo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for MVV vs VVV Venlo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MVV | 26% | 3.85 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| VVV Venlo | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (MVV or draw) | 49% | 2.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or VVV Venlo) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win by 2+ | 51% | 1.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
MVV and VVV Venlo recent form
MVV
1W 1D 4L
VVV Venlo
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
MVV at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VVV Venlo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: MVV at home only, VVV Venlo away only.
MVV vs VVV Venlo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: MVV 1 · draws 0 · VVV Venlo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | MVV | 2-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-21 | VVV Venlo | 1-0 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Emmen vs Den Bosch 2026-10-30
- Roda v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-30
- FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Waalwijk vs Almere City FC 2026-10-30
- Helmond Sport v FC Eindhoven — match page 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- MVV, previous: MVV vs Excelsior: odds and pick
- VVV Venlo, previous: VVV Venlo v Vitesse analysis