Emmen vs MVV preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between Emmen and MVV, the 1X2 probabilities show Emmen at 70%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). Emmen's expected goals stand at 2.59, while MVV's is only 1.06. This suggests a strong performance from Emmen, who have recently recorded four wins and a draw in their last six matches.
However, MVV could disrupt this expectation, as they have managed to win against Emmen in their last head-to-head encounter. Additionally, while our model indicates a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 61%, any unexpected defensive improvements from MVV might challenge these outcomes.
Emmen vs MVV: model vs market
| Source | Emmen | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Emmen below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Emmen vs MVV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Emmen, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmen | 1.44 | 1.52 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.37 | -0.38 |
| MVV | 5.87 | 5.20 | -0.67 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Emmen and MVV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Emmen / MVV)
- 1.05 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Emmen / MVV)
- 0.98 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Emmen vs MVV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Emmen goals. Columns: MVV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Emmen vs MVV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Emmen vs MVV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emmen | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | |
| MVV | 17% | 6.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Emmen or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or MVV) | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Emmen win by 2+ | 49% | 2.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Emmen and MVV recent form
Emmen
4W 1D 1L
MVV
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Emmen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-2
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
MVV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Emmen at home only, MVV away only.
Emmen vs MVV head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Emmen 1 · draws 0 · MVV 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Emmen | 2-1 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-09-26 | MVV | 1-0 | Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong PSV U21 — match page 2026-11-06
- Heracles vs Roda — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Dordrecht vs NAC Breda 2026-11-06
- Jong AZ v Almere City FC — match page 2026-11-06
- FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- FC OSS vs Waalwijk 2026-11-06
- Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Vitesse vs De Graafschap 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Emmen, previous: Emmen – Den Bosch, 2026-11-01
- MVV, previous: MVV v VVV Venlo analysis