Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 15

Dordrecht vs Heracles

· GN Bouw Stadion, Dordrecht

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Heracles to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DordrechtDrawHeracles

Dordrecht vs Heracles: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDordrechtDrawHeracles
Model9%14%77%
Market14%18%68%
Published12%17%70%
Edge-1%-1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.00.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Heracles below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Dordrecht vs Heracles odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Heracles, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.39Now 1.36 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dordrecht6.536.78+0.25
Draw5.005.00+0.00
Heracles1.391.36-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dordrecht and Heracles expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Dordrecht
2.96Heracles
Total expected goals
3.96
Attack rating (Dordrecht / Heracles)
0.84 / 1.51
Defence rating (Dordrecht / Heracles)
1.31 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dordrecht vs Heracles score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 5.1% 8.4% 8.3% 12.7% 1 1.3% 6.2% 8.4% 8.2% 12.6% 2 1.0% 2.8% 4.2% 4.1% 6.3% 3 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 2.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%

Rows: Dordrecht goals. Columns: Heracles goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dordrecht vs Heracles goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dordrecht vs Heracles

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dordrecht12%8.02
Draw17%5.73
Heracles70%1.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.10
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.52
Double chance1X (Dordrecht or draw)30%3.34
12 (either side)83%1.21
X2 (draw or Heracles)88%1.14
Handicap -1Heracles win by 2+58%1.73
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dordrecht and Heracles recent form

Dordrecht 1W 1D 4L
Heracles 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dordrecht at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-4
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
2.43
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.

Heracles away

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-1
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 11 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dordrecht at home only, Heracles away only.

Expected lineups

Dordrecht lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 28 T. Coremans
  2. 44 B. Hardley
  3. 3 S. Henderikx
  4. 15 Y. M'Bemba
  5. 5 C. Mpanzu
  6. 8 Senne Vugts
  7. 2 A. Lechkar
  8. 22 J. van Aken
  9. 11 N. Rossi
  10. 21 M. Vetkal
  11. 9 J. de Bie

Bench: Guus Huitzing, Dean Hogervorst, L. Román, Y. Younous

Heracles lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 F. de Keijzer
  2. 25 Manny
  3. 14 M. Wrusch
  4. 4 D. Mirani
  5. 15 David Vicente
  6. 32 S. Scheperman
  7. 11 J. Reine-Adélaïde
  8. 18 M. Hauswirth
  9. 10 T. Bruns
  10. 7 C. Abbas
  11. 27 J. N'djoli

Bench: M. Benita, Mario Borac, D. Tomić, V. Poppler, T. Jansink, Tarik Hamamioglu, M. te Wierik, D. van Kaam, L. Zeevalkink, S. Bultman, J. Wijnreder, F. Fofana

Dordrecht vs Heracles head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Dordrecht 0 · draws 1 · Heracles 4.

DordrechtDrawsHeracles
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-05-05Dordrecht1-3HeraclesEerste Divisie
2022-12-16Heracles8-1DordrechtEerste Divisie
2019-12-18Heracles3-0DordrechtKNVB Beker
2015-04-04Dordrecht2-3HeraclesEredivisie
2014-12-12Heracles1-1DordrechtEredivisie

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match