Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht, the 1X2 probabilities show Helmond Sport at 57% to win, while Dordrecht sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 83% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance for both teams to score.
Helmond Sport's recent form includes 5 losses and 1 win, while Dordrecht has 1 win, 4 losses, and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. This could impact the expected goals, with Helmond Sport at 2.74 and Dordrecht at 1.82. Despite Helmond Sport's favorable probabilities, their recent struggles could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht: model vs market
| Source | Helmond Sport | Draw | Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 19% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 19% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.82.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.56
- Attack rating (Helmond Sport / Dordrecht)
- 1.18 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Helmond Sport / Dordrecht)
- 1.45 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Helmond Sport goals. Columns: Dordrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Dordrecht | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Helmond Sport or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Dordrecht) | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Helmond Sport win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Helmond Sport and Dordrecht recent form
Helmond Sport
1W 0D 5L
Dordrecht
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Helmond Sport at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-2
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Dordrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Helmond Sport at home only, Dordrecht away only.
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Helmond Sport 0 · draws 0 · Dordrecht 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Dordrecht | 3-0 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-24 | Helmond Sport | 1-2 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- De Graafschap v MVV — match page 2026-11-20
- Vitesse vs Jong AZ — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 2026-11-20
- FC Volendam v Jong Ajax — match page 2026-11-20
- Almere City FC vs NAC Breda — team news & stats 2026-11-20
- Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo 2026-11-20
- FC OSS v Roda — match page 2026-11-20
- Jong Utrecht vs Emmen 2026-11-20
Before and after this match
- Helmond Sport, previous: Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport: odds and pick
- Dordrecht, previous: Dordrecht vs Heracles prediction