Updated

Eerste Divisie · Matchday 15

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

· Yanmar Stadion, Almere

Full time6 – 1

Alin prediction was Almere City FC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Almere City FCDrawHelmond Sport

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlmere City FCDrawHelmond Sport
Model74%15%11%
Market71%17%12%
Published72%16%12%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.14 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Almere City FC, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-08.

Opened 1.40Now 1.30 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Almere City FC1.401.30-0.10
Draw4.955.50+0.55
Helmond Sport6.007.65+1.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Almere City FC and Helmond Sport expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.14Almere City FC
1.25Helmond Sport
Total expected goals
4.39
Attack rating (Almere City FC / Helmond Sport)
1.22 / 1.18
Defence rating (Almere City FC / Helmond Sport)
0.71 / 1.44

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1 3.4% 5.4% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 2 6.1% 7.6% 4.8% 2.0% 0.8% 3 6.4% 8.0% 5.0% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 10.9% 13.7% 8.6% 3.6% 1.5%

Rows: Almere City FC goals. Columns: Helmond Sport goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 64%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Almere City FC72%1.39
Draw16%6.15
Helmond Sport12%8.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.23
Under 2.519%5.37
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.21
Double chance1X (Almere City FC or draw)88%1.14
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Helmond Sport)28%3.55
Handicap -1Almere City FC win by 2+56%1.79
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Almere City FC and Helmond Sport recent form

Almere City FC 4W 0D 2L
Helmond Sport 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Almere City FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 9 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Helmond Sport away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-6
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.83
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Almere City FC at home only, Helmond Sport away only.

Expected lineups

Almere City FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Wessel Speel
  2. 5 T. Bijleveld
  3. 4 J. Lawrence
  4. 3 J. Jacobs
  5. 2 M. Wasinski
  6. 8 M. de Haan
  7. 14 M. Hoedemakers
  8. 11 M. Dors
  9. 10 J. Jacobs
  10. 7 B. Burgering
  11. 9 F. Druijf

Bench: E. Cornelisse, E. Poku, Bas Huisman, Olivier de Nijs, J. Kalisvaart, H. El Dahri, E. van de Blaak, J. Ritmeester van de Kamp, J. van der Wilt, D. van Bruggen

Helmond Sport lineup · 4-1-3-2

  1. 1 M. Bergsen
  2. 5 T. Poll
  3. 43 T. Landheer
  4. 4 B. Koglin
  5. 2 R. van Bree
  6. 14 Lovro Golič
  7. 10 D. Huiberts
  8. 6 M. Ludwig
  9. 44 Xander van der Velde
  10. 9 L. Bajrami
  11. 34 T. Essakkati

Bench: F. Van Den Eynden, Wessel van der Heijden, A. Dizdarević, K. Ekoli, N. Meissner, Dayen Geerts, Mauro Lenaerts

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Almere City FC 4 · draws 2 · Helmond Sport 4.

Almere City FCDrawsHelmond Sport
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-13Almere City FC0-1Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2025-10-03Helmond Sport2-1Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2023-02-17Almere City FC0-0Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2022-09-02Helmond Sport3-0Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2022-03-11Almere City FC3-0Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2021-11-01Helmond Sport1-2Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2021-02-16Helmond Sport2-1Almere City FCEerste Divisie
2020-09-25Almere City FC2-0Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2020-02-28Almere City FC2-0Helmond SportEerste Divisie
2019-08-23Helmond Sport1-1Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match