De Graafschap vs MVV preview
In the fixture between De Graafschap and MVV, the 1X2 probabilities show De Graafschap at 50% and MVV at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 1.81 for De Graafschap and 1.22 for MVV.
The model indicates a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability for both teams to score. However, De Graafschap's recent form of W-L-D-L-W-D and MVV's W-L-L-D-L-L could affect these outcomes. Additionally, the head-to-head record shows De Graafschap has not won against MVV in their last two meetings, which may influence the match dynamics.
De Graafschap vs MVV: model vs market
| Source | De Graafschap | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
De Graafschap and MVV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (De Graafschap / MVV)
- 0.82 / 0.79
- Defence rating (De Graafschap / MVV)
- 1.03 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
De Graafschap vs MVV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: De Graafschap goals. Columns: MVV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
De Graafschap vs MVV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for De Graafschap vs MVV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | De Graafschap | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| MVV | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (De Graafschap or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or MVV) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | De Graafschap win by 2+ | 28% | 3.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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De Graafschap and MVV recent form
De Graafschap
2W 2D 2L
MVV
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
De Graafschap at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
MVV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: De Graafschap at home only, MVV away only.
De Graafschap vs MVV head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: De Graafschap 0 · draws 1 · MVV 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | MVV | 3-3 | De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-22 | De Graafschap | 0-1 | MVV | Eerste Divisie |
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Before and after this match
- De Graafschap, previous: De Graafschap v FC OSS analysis
- MVV, previous: MVV vs Vitesse prediction