FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk preview
In the Eerste Divisie fixture between FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk, the 1X2 probabilities show Waalwijk at 44% to win, compared to FC Eindhoven's 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of FC Eindhoven at 1.59 and Waalwijk at 1.88.
Both teams to score sits at 68%, while Over 2.5 goals is projected at 67%. FC Eindhoven's recent form includes 5 losses in 6 matches, while Waalwijk has drawn in 4 of their last 6 games. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. A surprise could occur if FC Eindhoven manages to improve their performance significantly.
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk: model vs market
| Source | FC Eindhoven | Draw | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.47
- Attack rating (FC Eindhoven / Waalwijk)
- 0.96 / 0.93
- Defence rating (FC Eindhoven / Waalwijk)
- 1.34 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Eindhoven goals. Columns: Waalwijk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Eindhoven | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Waalwijk | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Eindhoven or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Waalwijk) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Waalwijk win by 2+ | 25% | 4.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk recent form
FC Eindhoven
1W 0D 5L
Waalwijk
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Eindhoven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waalwijk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-2
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Eindhoven at home only, Waalwijk away only.
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: FC Eindhoven 1 · draws 0 · Waalwijk 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Waalwijk | 2-1 | FC Eindhoven | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-08-22 | FC Eindhoven | 1-0 | Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
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Before and after this match
- FC Eindhoven, previous: VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven: odds and pick
- FC Eindhoven, next: FC Eindhoven vs Quick Boys prediction
- Waalwijk, previous: Waalwijk v Den Bosch analysis
- Waalwijk, next: Waalwijk v Cambuur analysis