Twente vs Ajax preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Twente and Ajax, the 1X2 probabilities show Twente at 43%, Ajax at 34%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time. Twente has an expected goals figure of 2.35, while Ajax sits at 1.34.
Both teams to score stands at 67%, and the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is at 71%. Recent form indicates Twente has won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Ajax has won 4. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is Ajax's recent loss, which may impact their confidence going into this match.
Twente vs Ajax: model vs market
| Source | Twente | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Published | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.49.
- The market prices Twente below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Twente vs Ajax odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Twente, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 2.50 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.91 | 3.87 | -0.04 |
| Ajax | 2.38 | 2.81 | +0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Twente and Ajax expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.77
- Attack rating (Twente / Ajax)
- 1.60 / 1.61
- Defence rating (Twente / Ajax)
- 0.61 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Twente vs Ajax score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Twente goals. Columns: Ajax goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Twente vs Ajax goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Twente vs Ajax
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Ajax | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Twente or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Ajax) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Twente and Ajax recent form
Twente
5W 0D 1L
Ajax
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Twente at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ajax away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Twente at home only, Ajax away only.
Twente vs Ajax head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Twente 1 · draws 0 · Ajax 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Ajax | 1-2 | Twente | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-26 | Twente | 2-3 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar 2026-11-07
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
- Heerenveen v Feyenoord — match page 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Twente, previous: Twente vs Pafos prediction
- Twente, next: Freiburg vs Twente: odds and pick
- Ajax, previous: FC Midtjylland v Ajax analysis
- Ajax, next: Ajax vs FC Thun prediction