ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam, the 1X2 probabilities show ADO Den Haag at 44%, draw at 24%, and Sparta Rotterdam at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams have had mixed recent form, with ADO Den Haag recording D-L-W-D-D-L and Sparta Rotterdam showing D-L-W-D-L-L. The expected goals are 2.45 for ADO Den Haag and 1.67 for Sparta Rotterdam. While Over 2.5 goals stands at 78% and both teams to score at 75%, factors like defensive performance or unexpected player changes could impact these outcomes.
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam: model vs market
| Source | ADO Den Haag | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam odds movement
Median bookmaker price on ADO Den Haag, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 2.30 | 2.45 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 2.70 | 2.62 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (ADO Den Haag / Sparta Rotterdam)
- 0.85 / 1.10
- Defence rating (ADO Den Haag / Sparta Rotterdam)
- 1.06 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ADO Den Haag goals. Columns: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADO Den Haag | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ADO Den Haag or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Sparta Rotterdam) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | ADO Den Haag win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ADO Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam recent form
ADO Den Haag
1W 3D 2L
Sparta Rotterdam
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ADO Den Haag at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sparta Rotterdam away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ADO Den Haag at home only, Sparta Rotterdam away only.
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ADO Den Haag 1 · draws 4 · Sparta Rotterdam 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | ADO Den Haag | 0-2 | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-03-19 | ADO Den Haag | 0-2 | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-07-13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1-1 | ADO Den Haag | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-12-20 | ADO Den Haag | 2-0 | Sparta Rotterdam | KNVB Beker |
| 2023-08-01 | ADO Den Haag | 1-2 | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-12-04 | ADO Den Haag | 0-3 | Sparta Rotterdam | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-01-31 | ADO Den Haag | 1-1 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| 2020-11-22 | Sparta Rotterdam | 6-0 | ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| 2020-10-28 | ADO Den Haag | 1-1 | Sparta Rotterdam | KNVB Beker |
| 2020-09-04 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1-1 | ADO Den Haag | Friendlies Clubs |
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Before and after this match
- ADO Den Haag, previous: PEC Zwolle – ADO Den Haag, 2026-11-01
- Sparta Rotterdam, previous: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction