PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag, the model gives PEC Zwolle a 39% chance to win, while ADO Den Haag sits at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% probability. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both have a strong 70% likelihood according to the model.
PEC Zwolle has an expected goals figure of 1.61, while ADO Den Haag is at 2.01. Recent form shows PEC Zwolle with two draws and three losses in their last six matches, whereas ADO Den Haag has one win, two draws, and three losses. This recent performance could impact the outcome, making the predictions less certain.
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag: model vs market
| Source | PEC Zwolle | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PEC Zwolle, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 2.25 | 2.25 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.68 | +0.06 |
| ADO Den Haag | 2.84 | 2.89 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.62
- Attack rating (PEC Zwolle / ADO Den Haag)
- 0.78 / 1.04
- Defence rating (PEC Zwolle / ADO Den Haag)
- 1.27 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PEC Zwolle goals. Columns: ADO Den Haag goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PEC Zwolle | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| ADO Den Haag | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PEC Zwolle or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or ADO Den Haag) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | PEC Zwolle win by 2+ | 15% | 6.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag recent form
PEC Zwolle
1W 2D 3L
ADO Den Haag
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PEC Zwolle at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ADO Den Haag away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: PEC Zwolle at home only, ADO Den Haag away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II 2026-10-31
- Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen — match page 2026-10-31
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-10-31
- Excelsior vs Twente — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Telstar vs Utrecht 2026-11-01
- Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- PEC Zwolle, previous: PEC Zwolle vs FC OSS prediction
- ADO Den Haag, previous: Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag prediction