Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen preview
Heerenveen faces NEC Nijmegen with a 54% chance of winning, while NEC Nijmegen sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals figure of 2.28 for Heerenveen and 1.22 for NEC Nijmegen. The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 64%.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty. NEC Nijmegen's recent form shows 4 draws in their last 5 matches, which could impact their ability to score. If they manage to convert chances effectively, the expected goals could shift, affecting the outcome.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: model vs market
| Source | Heerenveen | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 21% | 19% |
| Market | 45% | 23% | 31% |
| Published | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Heerenveen below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Heerenveen, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 1.84 | 2.07 | +0.23 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.00 | -0.05 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 3.60 | 3.00 | -0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.54
- Attack rating (Heerenveen / NEC Nijmegen)
- 1.09 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Heerenveen / NEC Nijmegen)
- 0.83 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heerenveen goals. Columns: NEC Nijmegen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heerenveen or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or NEC Nijmegen) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Heerenveen win by 2+ | 38% | 2.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen recent form
Heerenveen
3W 1D 2L
NEC Nijmegen
1W 5D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heerenveen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
NEC Nijmegen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Heerenveen at home only, NEC Nijmegen away only.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Heerenveen 1 · draws 1 · NEC Nijmegen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | NEC Nijmegen | 2-2 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-09-21 | Heerenveen | 3-2 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
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Before and after this match
- Heerenveen, previous: Excelsior Maassluis – Heerenveen, 2026-10-28
- NEC Nijmegen, previous: NEC Nijmegen – Groningen, 2026-10-25
- NEC Nijmegen, next: NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction