PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II preview
PSV Eindhoven faces Willem II with a strong 1X2 probability of 88% for a PSV win. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, supported by expected goals of 3.49 for PSV and just 0.86 for Willem II. PSV's recent form shows a mixed record with three wins and three losses, while Willem II has struggled, recording five losses and one draw in their last six matches.
While PSV is favored, a potential upset could occur if Willem II manages to improve their scoring, as the model indicates a 56% chance for both teams to score. However, with PSV's attacking strength, the expectation remains high for a match featuring Over 2.5 goals at 81%.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II: model vs market
| Source | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Market | 89% | 7% | 4% |
| Published | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.30 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.08, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.05 | 1.06 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 13.00 | 13.25 | +0.25 |
| Willem II | 27.00 | 25.50 | -1.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.15
- Attack rating (PSV Eindhoven / Willem II)
- 1.19 / 0.75
- Defence rating (PSV Eindhoven / Willem II)
- 0.74 / 1.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PSV Eindhoven goals. Columns: Willem II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PSV Eindhoven | 88% | 1.14 |
| Draw | 8% | 12.32 | |
| Willem II | 4% | 24.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PSV Eindhoven or draw) | 96% | 1.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| X2 (draw or Willem II) | 12% | 8.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win by 2+ | 67% | 1.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II recent form
PSV Eindhoven
2W 1D 3L
Willem II
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PSV Eindhoven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Willem II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 3.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven at home only, Willem II away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen — match page 2026-10-31
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-10-31
- PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag — match page 2026-11-01
- Excelsior vs Twente — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Telstar vs Utrecht 2026-11-01
- Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- PSV Eindhoven, previous: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord prediction
- PSV Eindhoven, next: PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge KV, 2026-11-04
- Willem II, previous: Helmond Sport v Willem II analysis