Telstar vs Utrecht preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Telstar and Utrecht, the probabilities show Utrecht at 39% to win and Telstar at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 74%, indicating a strong likelihood of a high-scoring match.
Telstar's recent form shows 5 matches without a win (L-L-D-L-D-L), while Utrecht has a mixed record with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 games (D-W-W-L-W-D). The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Telstar at 2.02 and Utrecht at 1.84. However, if Telstar can improve their form, they may challenge Utrecht's slight edge.
Telstar vs Utrecht: model vs market
| Source | Telstar | Draw | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Telstar vs Utrecht odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Utrecht, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar | 2.71 | 2.75 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.70 | -0.02 |
| Utrecht | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Telstar and Utrecht expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.87
- Attack rating (Telstar / Utrecht)
- 0.92 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Telstar / Utrecht)
- 1.16 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Telstar vs Utrecht score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Telstar goals. Columns: Utrecht goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Telstar vs Utrecht goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Telstar vs Utrecht
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telstar | 36% | 2.77 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Utrecht | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Telstar or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Utrecht) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Utrecht win by 2+ | 19% | 5.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Telstar and Utrecht recent form
Telstar
0W 2D 4L
Utrecht
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Telstar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Utrecht away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Telstar at home only, Utrecht away only.
Telstar vs Utrecht head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Telstar 0 · draws 1 · Utrecht 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Utrecht | 4-1 | Telstar | Eredivisie |
| 2025-11-23 | Telstar | 1-1 | Utrecht | Eredivisie |
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Before and after this match
- Telstar, previous: Telstar vs Almere City FC prediction
- Utrecht, previous: Kozakken Boys v Utrecht analysis