Excelsior vs Twente preview
Excelsior faces Twente with a 19% chance of winning compared to Twente's 60%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Twente's expected goals of 2.20 against Excelsior's 1.26. Twente's recent form shows strength with three wins in their last five matches, while Excelsior has struggled, recording four losses in their last five.
The model suggests a high likelihood of 67% for Over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score. However, Excelsior's recent poor performance could lead to a different outcome. If they manage to improve their form, the match could be more competitive than expected.
Excelsior vs Twente: model vs market
| Source | Excelsior | Draw | Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 23% | 58% |
| Market | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Published | 19% | 21% | 60% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Excelsior vs Twente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Twente, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 5.13 | 5.00 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.03 |
| Twente | 1.54 | 1.55 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Excelsior and Twente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Excelsior / Twente)
- 0.97 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Excelsior / Twente)
- 1.16 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Excelsior vs Twente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Excelsior goals. Columns: Twente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Excelsior vs Twente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Excelsior vs Twente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Excelsior | 19% | 5.26 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Twente | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Excelsior or draw) | 40% | 2.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Twente) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Excelsior and Twente recent form
Excelsior
0W 2D 4L
Twente
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Excelsior at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Twente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Excelsior at home only, Twente away only.
Excelsior vs Twente head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Excelsior 1 · draws 1 · Twente 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Twente | 0-0 | Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 2025-08-30 | Excelsior | 1-0 | Twente | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Excelsior, previous: MVV vs Excelsior: odds and pick
- Twente, previous: AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: odds and pick
- Twente, next: Twente vs Pafos prediction