Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam, the 1X2 probabilities show Groningen at 61% and Sparta Rotterdam at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an expected goals tally of 3.25 for Groningen and 1.81 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Groningen's recent form includes two wins and three draws, while Sparta Rotterdam has struggled, with only one win in their last six matches. Although our model predicts a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 88% and both teams to score at 81%, the recent head-to-head record shows Sparta Rotterdam winning all three of the last encounters, which could challenge Groningen's form.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: model vs market
| Source | Groningen | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 16% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.23 vs 1.79.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Groningen below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Groningen, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 1.56 | 1.71 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.17 | -0.24 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 4.88 | 4.10 | -0.78 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 5.02
- Attack rating (Groningen / Sparta Rotterdam)
- 1.27 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Groningen / Sparta Rotterdam)
- 1.20 / 1.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Groningen goals. Columns: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Groningen | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 88% | 1.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 12% | 8.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.24 |
| No | 20% | 5.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Groningen or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Sparta Rotterdam) | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Groningen win by 2+ | 48% | 2.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam recent form
Groningen
2W 3D 1L
Sparta Rotterdam
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Groningen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
Sparta Rotterdam away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Groningen at home only, Sparta Rotterdam away only.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Groningen 0 · draws 0 · Sparta Rotterdam 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2-0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 2025-10-30 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5-2 | Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| 2025-10-19 | Groningen | 0-2 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II 2026-10-31
- Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen — match page 2026-10-31
- Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-10-31
- PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag — match page 2026-11-01
- Excelsior vs Twente — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Telstar vs Utrecht 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Groningen, previous: Groningen – Emmen, 2026-10-29
- Sparta Rotterdam, previous: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard: odds and pick