Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard preview
Feyenoord faces Fortuna Sittard with an 81% probability of winning and an expected goals tally of 2.96 compared to Fortuna's 1.29. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time according to our model. With 80% for Over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, there are strong indicators for a high-scoring match.
However, Fortuna Sittard's recent form shows they have managed to secure draws and wins, which could challenge Feyenoord's dominance. While Feyenoord has won their last 6 matches, any slip in their performance could affect the expected outcome. The confidence grade of C suggests some uncertainty in the match dynamics.
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard: model vs market
| Source | Feyenoord | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Published | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Feyenoord, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.13 | 1.14 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 8.25 | 8.40 | +0.15 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 15.38 | 15.00 | -0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Feyenoord / Fortuna Sittard)
- 1.41 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Feyenoord / Fortuna Sittard)
- 0.87 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Feyenoord goals. Columns: Fortuna Sittard goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Feyenoord | 78% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.54 | |
| Fortuna Sittard | 9% | 11.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Feyenoord or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortuna Sittard) | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win by 2+ | 43% | 2.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard recent form
Feyenoord
4W 1D 1L
Fortuna Sittard
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Feyenoord at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Fortuna Sittard away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Feyenoord at home only, Fortuna Sittard away only.
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Feyenoord 2 · draws 0 · Fortuna Sittard 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Fortuna Sittard | 1-2 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 2025-09-17 | Feyenoord | 2-0 | Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
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- PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag — match page 2026-11-01
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Before and after this match
- Feyenoord, previous: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord prediction
- Feyenoord, next: Feyenoord v Inter analysis
- Fortuna Sittard, previous: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard: odds and pick