Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar preview
Ajax faces AZ Alkmaar with a 50% chance to win, while AZ Alkmaar has a 27% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Ajax has an expected goals figure of 2.11, compared to AZ Alkmaar's 1.62.
Both teams to score has a 71% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 72%. However, Ajax's recent form shows 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while AZ Alkmaar has 3 wins but also 2 losses. The head-to-head record shows Ajax with 0 wins against AZ Alkmaar's 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 encounters. This could impact the outcome.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market
| Source | Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Published | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.43.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ajax, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1.85 | 1.85 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.05 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 3.51 | 3.56 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Ajax / AZ Alkmaar)
- 1.50 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Ajax / AZ Alkmaar)
- 0.87 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ajax goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.39 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ajax or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar recent form
Ajax
3W 2D 1L
AZ Alkmaar
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ajax at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AZ Alkmaar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ajax at home only, AZ Alkmaar away only.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Ajax 0 · draws 1 · AZ Alkmaar 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | AZ Alkmaar | 1-1 | Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2026-01-14 | AZ Alkmaar | 6-0 | Ajax | KNVB Beker |
| 2025-10-18 | Ajax | 0-2 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II 2026-10-31
- Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen — match page 2026-10-31
- Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-10-31
- PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag — match page 2026-11-01
- Excelsior vs Twente — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Telstar vs Utrecht 2026-11-01
- Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Ajax, previous: Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax analysis
- Ajax, next: FC Midtjylland v Ajax analysis
- AZ Alkmaar, previous: AZ Alkmaar vs Twente: odds and pick
- AZ Alkmaar, next: AZ Alkmaar – Juventus, 2026-11-05