Heerenveen vs Feyenoord preview
Heerenveen faces Feyenoord with a 27% chance of winning compared to Feyenoord's 50%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with an expected goals of 1.60 for Heerenveen and 1.43 for Feyenoord. The model suggests a 58% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score.
However, Heerenveen's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Feyenoord has 4 wins as well but includes 2 draws and a loss. The head-to-head record is balanced with each team having 1 win and 1 draw in the last 3 encounters. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable despite the numbers.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord: model vs market
| Source | Heerenveen | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 23% | 22% | 56% |
| Published | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Edge | +6% | +1% | -7% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Feyenoord, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 4.00 | 4.20 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.33 | +0.08 |
| Feyenoord | 1.71 | 1.70 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Heerenveen and Feyenoord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Heerenveen / Feyenoord)
- 1.04 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Heerenveen / Feyenoord)
- 0.70 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Heerenveen goals. Columns: Feyenoord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heerenveen | 29% | 3.45 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Feyenoord | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Heerenveen or draw) | 52% | 1.94 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Feyenoord) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Feyenoord win by 2+ | 12% | 8.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Heerenveen and Feyenoord recent form
Heerenveen
5W 0D 1L
Feyenoord
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Heerenveen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Feyenoord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Heerenveen at home only, Feyenoord away only.
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Heerenveen 1 · draws 1 · Feyenoord 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Heerenveen | 2-2 | Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 2025-12-17 | Feyenoord | 2-3 | Heerenveen | KNVB Beker |
| 2025-09-13 | Feyenoord | 1-0 | Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar 2026-11-07
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam — match page 2026-11-07
- Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles 2026-11-07
- Twente vs Ajax 2026-11-08
- Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- AZ Alkmaar v Groningen — match page 2026-11-08
- Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Heerenveen, previous: Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen analysis
- Feyenoord, previous: Feyenoord v Inter analysis
- Feyenoord, next: Feyenoord v FC Porto analysis