Larne vs Coleraine FC preview
Larne faces Coleraine FC with a 44% chance of winning compared to Coleraine's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Larne winning 4 of their last 5 matches and Coleraine winning 5 of their last 6.
The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with 66% for Over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score. However, the recent head-to-head record is tight, with Larne winning 2, Coleraine winning 2, and 1 draw in their last 5 encounters. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable.
Larne vs Coleraine FC: model vs market
| Source | Larne | Draw | Coleraine FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.55.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Larne and Coleraine FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Larne / Coleraine FC)
- 1.21 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Larne / Coleraine FC)
- 0.81 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Larne vs Coleraine FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Larne goals. Columns: Coleraine FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Larne vs Coleraine FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Larne vs Coleraine FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Coleraine FC | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Larne or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Coleraine FC) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win by 2+ | 25% | 4.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Larne and Coleraine FC recent form
Larne
5W 0D 1L
Coleraine FC
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Larne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Coleraine FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Larne at home only, Coleraine FC away only.
Larne vs Coleraine FC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Larne 2 · draws 1 · Coleraine FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Coleraine FC | 0-0 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-04-07 | Larne | 1-4 | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-01-02 | Larne | 3-0 | Coleraine FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-25 | Coleraine FC | 1-2 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-10 | Coleraine FC | 1-0 | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership |
Before and after this match
- Larne, previous: Crusaders FC – Larne, 2026-10-10
- Coleraine FC, previous: Coleraine FC vs Cliftonville FC prediction